Wow, has it been a year again already? You all know how this works. The Oscar race is officially underway, so it's time to once again make predictions for this year's contenders. Speaking of, I'm actually starting to get used to the notion of ten Best Picture nominees.
What I don't get is why there are now ten Best Picture nominees, but still only five Best Director noms. Seems kinda silly that half of the film's directors get left in the cold, but that's a subject for another blog.
In any case, between now and Oscar night, it's anybody's guess as to who win. But as always, I'm going to hazard a few guesses. How many do you wager I'll actually get right this time?
Let's find out:
Best Supporting Actress: This contest could get very interesting, as all of these actresses are several strong contenders. I'm not always the biggest Helena Bonham Carter fan, but she was quite good as the Queen Mum in The King's Speech; Young Hailee Steinfeld holds her own opposite Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon in True Grit; and the talented Melissa Leo shines (as always) in The Fighter. Ms. Bonham Carter may be a slight favorite for King's Speech (which has the most nominations at 12), however I think the Oscar is more likely to go and WILL go to Melissa Leo.
All of these actresses are talented, but my gut tells me that this is Ms. Leo's year. Of course, I might be biased (after all, I've been a big fan of Leo's since her days playing Detective Kay Howard on Homicide: Life on the Street). Still, it's the buzz over her tour de force performance that leads me to think that she'll be taking home the little guy on Oscar night. We'll have to wait and see if I'm right.
Predicted Winner: Melissa Leo
Best Supporting Actor: Here's another category that's could land anywhere. Christian Bale always delivers intense performances, and The Fighter is no exception. Jeremy Renner is downright scary as Ben Affleck's bankrobbing wingman in The Town. And while I think the Academy might favor Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech, I think Oscar will bestow acting accolades on either Bale or Renner. That being said, my money's on Christian Bale.
Predicted Winner: Christian Bale
Best Adapted Screenplay: Yes, True Grit and 127 Hours are in this category (along with Winter's Bone). And yes, Toy Story 3 is also n this category, but Woody and Buzz won't win for their movie's script. We all know which category Pixar consistently takes (see my annual rant below in the Best Animated Feature category). Aaron Sorkin is clearly the favorite for The Social Network and he will win. Take it to the bank, kids.
Predicted Winner: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: This one's interesting. I don't see Inception getting this one. It's strength is on its visuals, not so much the script (I know, I know. You wouldn't have those mind-bending shots WITHOUT the script it's based on. True, but Inception is viewed -- for better or worse, through the prism of its director, Christopher Nolan, and not the words on a page). But we'll come back to Inception later...
Similarly, I don't see The Fighter or Another Year taking home the prize. The most likely upset in this category is a win for The Kids Are All Right. However, I strongly believe that this one's going to The King's Speech.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Best Cinematography: Look at all the pretty pictures...
This category could be interesting. While I expect this one to go to The King's Speech, it should probably go to Black Swan, or more deservedly, to Inception. However, it's more likely that this category will be caught up in the wake of The King's Speech's tidal wave of wins. But I hope I'm wrong.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Best Art Direction: This is another one that The King's Speech might carry away, but my gut tells me otherwise. While Inception might take it, I'm going with another suspect.
Predicted Winner: Alice in Wonderland
Best Editing: I have a feeling that this Oscar will come down to two films - Black Swan and The King's Speech. I'm having a hard time picking between these two, but I think I'm going to go with the darling of the ball.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Best Sound: And the nominees are... Inception. The King's Speech. Salt. The Social Network. True Grit. I don't see director David Fincher's take on the creation of Facebook taking this category. Probably the same for the Coen Brothers' adaptation of Charles Portis' Western novel, True Grit. This is a possible win for the Angelina Jolie flick Salt, or perhaps even Christopher Nolan's Inception. However, I believe this award will be one more feather in the cap of The King's Speech.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Best Sound Editing: This one will prove a contest between Tron: Legacy and Inception. Advantage to the dream world over the computer world.
Predicted Winner: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Even with competition like Alice in Wonderland and Iron Man 2, the clear winner is the mind-bending visuals of Inception.
Predicted Winner: Inception
Best Original Song: This award more often than not goes to a song from an animated feature. I think this year will be no exception. Despite the presence of nominated songs from Country Strong and 127 Hours, I have the feeling that this one will go either Tangled or Toy Story 3. And given that one of these nominees is a Pixar film, it's pretty much a no-brainer as to which one will win.
Predicted Winner: Toy Story 3
Best Original Score: With several very talented composers filling out this category, it'll be interesting to see who walks away with the Oscar. And while I'm a big fan of John Powell and Hans Zimmer, I think the evening will be very good to Alexandre Desplat.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Best Animated Feature: And so we've finally come to the animated feature category. Since the category was created in 2002 (and included an Oscar category for films released in 2001), one animation studio has been more successful than any other: Pixar. Of the seven animated features that Pixar released between 2001 and 2009, all have been nominated for Oscars, and all but two have won (Monster's Inc. and Cars being the only Pixar films to not win Oscar gold).
While there's no doubt that Pixar is very, very good at what they do (who can't admire any group of people who put story above everything else?!), is it really a good thing that they've dominated this category the way that they have? I'm not hating; I'm just sayin'. And consider the fact that they have a nominee this year: Toy Story 3. And while TS3 is ALSO nominated for Best Picture, we all know that it won't win in this category. And does anyone really believe that it will lose Best Animated Feature to either The Illusionist or How to Train Your Dragon? The fact that TS3 can and WILL win is a slam dunk, a no-brainer.
And that, to me, is the whole point.
Predicted Winner: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary (Short Subject): See Best Documentary Feature below...
Best Documentary (Feature-Length): I can't really speak to the documentary categories this year, because I haven't seen any of them. Which makes it all the more disappointing that the documentary I DID see this past year, Waiting for Superman, wasn't even nominated. I'll save myself the embarrassment and won't even hazard any guesses here...
Best Foreign Film: With all of the buzz behind it this year, I'm going to have to go with Javier Bardem's film, Biutiful.
Predicted Winner: Biutiful
Best Actress: And so, we've come to it. While there are five very talented actresses up for this award, this contest really comes down to just two of them. You know which two I mean. Annette Bening and Natalie Portman. Ms. Bening (up for her performance in The Kids Are All Right) is the veteran actress with numerous roles to her credit. And there are a lot of people who'd like to see her win an Oscar this year. This is her fourth nomination (including three for Best Actress), but she's never won. Many will see that as a sign that the Academy should give her her due this time around. But will she get it?
The odds-on favorite is Natalie Portman for her performance in Black Swan. Little wonder, too, with all the buzz she's garnered. Speaking of garnered, she's bagged a number of awards for this movie, including the Golden Globe, the Screen Actor's Guild award, and the British Academy Award. Not bad for an actress who's probably known to most of the world for playing Luke Skywalker's mom in the Star Wars prequels! Ms. Portman's always been a strong actress. I remember how impressed I was with her the first time I saw her (no, not in Star Wars: Episode I), but director Luc Besson's The Professional. She was just a kid then, but she made me believe every emotion she played in the movie (kinda like Best Actress nominee Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit).
Both Ms. Bening and Ms. Portman are gifted actors. And while there's a chance the former might just surprise us all and upset the Oscar chances of the latter, I'm betting against it. I'm going with Luke Skywalker's mom.
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Best Actor: This is another competitive category, with fresh faces and veteran actors all competing for this award. I think it's unlikely that Oscar winner Jeff Bridges will win another statuette so soon after his win for Crazy Heart. I also don't think this one will go to nominee Javier Bardem, either. Oscar show co-host James Franco could win for the extraordinary job he did in 127 Hours, as could Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (that was some fine work he did portraying Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.
In the end, however, I believe this one to be Colin Firth's to lose. You can look for a possible upset by either Eisenberg or Franco, but Oscar night will belong to The King's Speech.
Predicted Winner: Colin Firth for The King's Speech
Best Director: Every year there's speculation as to whether or not the same movie will win both Best director and Best Picture. Movies like Titanic and The Hurt Locker did it. Other films like Saving Private Ryan and Crash did not. I think this is going to be a year where we see such an award split again. But I guess that depends on which film wins Best Picture, right? Let's take consider the possibilities...
First off, the Coen Brothers, as much as I love them, ain't getting another Oscar so soon after No Country for Old Men. Just not gonna happen, folks. Now it's possible that David O. Russell or Darren Aronofsky might take it, but I don't think so. I also don't think that Tom Hooper is going to win (but I do believe his film will). I think this is one of those situations where the Academy will want to award an extraordinary director while also awarding a different film (the one with all of this year's momentum behind it) with the Best Picture Oscar. Fincher is an amazing director with an impressive body of work behind him. He made a a very strong film with The Social Network and I believe he's going to be recognized for it.
Predicted Winner: David Fincher for The Social Network
Best Picture: Ok, kids. This is it. But I don't think there are going to be any surprises. There's one film that's been the runaway favorite throughout this awards season, and it's I think it's carrying home the big one tonight. That's right. It's gonna be that little film about the Brit royal with a stammer.
Predicted Winner: The King's Speech
Well, that's how I see it. Check back on February 27th and I'll sum up who actually wins. In the meantime, let the speculation begin....
