Well, here we are once again, and the Oscar race is officially underway. Things are a little different this time around, with ten Best Picture nominees, instead of the traditional five. But as always, the big question is, who will win? And, big surprise, I'm going to hazard a few guesses:
Best Visual Effects: Why do they need to keep us waiting on this one? With a movie like Avatar – and all of its technical achievements to create the world of Pandora – none of the other nominees come even close in terms of what was put up on the big screen. I mean, they should just go ahead and give the Oscar to the Avatar team. It’s not like we don’t already know that they’re going to win. Drawing out the process and making the nominees wait till the envelope is opened is cruel and unusual punishment, IMHO.
Best Adapted Screenplay: I’ve only seen one of these films (District 9), and while I would love to see one of the better science fiction films win in this category, I’ll be surprised if Up in the Air doesn’t win. That, or maybe Precious.
Best Original Screenplay: Again, only seen one of these so far, but what a film it was! I really enjoyed The Hurt Locker, and would like to see it win as many awards as possible (more on that later). Guess we’ll just have to see who comes out on top.
Best Cinematography: My gut tells me that because of all of its technical achievements, this one will probably go to Avatar. If I’m wrong, look for this award to go to The Hurt Locker. I say this because my gut feeling is that Kathryn Bigelow and her film is going to have a very good night. And speaking of Avatar: despite the fact that it took best picture and best director at the Golden Globes, I have a feeling that James Cameron’s not necessarily going to run away with the top awards at the Academy Awards. But more on that later….
Best Original Score: As some of you know, I’m a big fan of movie music. I’m very curious to see how this one plays out. While James Horner’s Avatar score is an obvious choice, I have a feeling that it’ll go to the “feel good” nominee in this category: Up.
Best Animated Feature: I'm excited to see such a diverse slate of films in this category, including several crowd pleasers. That being said, the award is going to Up. I think this is the only movie from 2009 that no one has said anything negative about. At all. And, of course, it’s Pixar (I don’t know why they don’t just call this the Pixar category). Interestingly, Up is also nominated in the Best Picture category. And to give the other nine nominees a chance at taking home Oscar gold, I think they’ll award Pixar in this animated category.
Best Supporting Actress: Hmm. While I suspect that Mo’Nique will take home Mr. Oscar for Precious (just as she did at the Golden Globes), look for a possible upset by either Vera Farmiga (for Up in the Air) or Maggie Gyllenhaal (for Crazy Heart).
Best Supporting Actor: While I’d like to see it go to Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones (he completely immersed himself in the role, turning in a delightfully creepy performance as a murderous neighbor), I suspect the award will go to Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds.
Best Actress: I usually assume that the Academy will award this one to some grand dame like this year’s nominee, Helen Mirren. But I’ve been proven wrong before. While there’s a lot of speculation that Sandra Bullock will win for The Blind Side, I’m not convinced that that’s a safe bet. Meryl Streep is so good that she’d be nominated for reciting her grocery list (and yes, that IS a compliment – she is that good), but I don’t think she’ll win. Again. So while it could very well be Sandra’s year (I’ve been impressed with her non-comedic acting turns since Crash), my gut tells me that it could very well be Gabourey Sidibe (for Precious) or Carey Mulligan (for An Education).
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela. Just the thought of that gives me chills. He’s one of the best actors of our generation, and Invictus is his latest turn at showing us his acting chops . George Clooney always turns in solid performances in interesting movies (well, maybe not Batman & Robin – but that wasn’t so much his fault as it was the writer and the director's). And Up in the Air is no exception. Jeremy Renner’s performance carried me through the harrowing journey that was The Hurt Locker. He was definitely the heart and soul of that picture. And in another year, I’d think he’d have a real shot at winning. But my gut tells me that this is Jeff Bridges’ year. The talk about his performance in Crazy Heart is that this is his career best. And I think he has the momentum to win. That, and the fact that the Academy loves a down–on-his-luck underdog story.
Best Director: The big question here is how heavily the Avatar phenomenon figures in this category. It’s possible that Cameron could win, and while I am a big fan of both Cameron and Avatar, I personally would like to see his ex-wife – Kathryn Bigelow – win for The Hurt Locker. I’ve been a fan of hers – and her films – for years. She’s a talented filmmaker with a unique point of view. Whether in a cop thriller (Blue Steel) or a science fiction morality tale (Strange Days), Ms. Bigelow knows how to tell a story in a way that’s uniquely her own. She does just that in The Hurt Locker. I love imaginative worlds that evoke a sense of wonder - such as the one that Mr. Cameron transports us to in Avatar, and I was astonished by what we found there. However, in many ways, I was even more astonished by the real world of the bomb teams in uniform who find and defuse explosives in Iraq and Afghanistan, as depicted in Ms. Bigelow's film. She introduces us to characters in a world I never knew existed. And she made me care about them, rejoice with them, and worry about them from the opening shot to the final credits.
In other words, she made a fine movie. But that's not all. Ms. Bigelow has proven herself and shown that she can make good movies with the big boys. And I mean that literally. Hollywood moviemaking is a male-dominated industry, and interestingly, in the entire history of the Oscars, only three other women have ever been nominated (directors Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion, and Sofia Coppola). None have ever won. Kathryn Bigelow is the fourth woman to receive the nomination. And to be brutally honest, I hope she wins. No, I don't she should win just because she's a woman. Obviously, that would be wrong. But what's also wrong is the fact that no woman has ever won in all this time (the same is true for the fact that no African-American has ever won in this category either, but that's a different blog for another occasion).
The truth, though, is that this is more indicative of a greater issue in Hollywood - that movies are still an overwhelmingly male-dominated arena - than it is the fault of the Academy Awards. I don't fault them, but I think it'd be great if they reward a director who made a superb film. And in this case, that director just happens to be a woman. However this pans out, I hope the best director wins. May the best man - or woman - win!
Best Picture: There's never been a more diverse slate of movies to choose from, at least not in recent memory. Dramas, science fiction (not one, but TWO nominees - when has THAT ever happened?), war movies, and animation. Wow. Who's going to win? I have absolute no idea. I will tell you who I think will NOT win, though. I don't think it will be Avatar. While the movie did win Best Director and Best Picture at the Golden Globes, I don't see that happening this time around. Of course, I also didn't see this movie becoming the biggest box office success of all time (second only to that boat movie, also directed by Mr. Cameron). While it would be interesting to see a science fiction film take the top honor, I'm not convinced that this is the year it will happen. I also don't think it should happen. I think it's a great movie, but I just don't think it's the best movie of 2009.
That being said, while I don't know who will win, I have a hunch that it will be either The Hurt Locker or An Education. Other nominees have either won before or are part of the "it's an honor just to be nominated" club. I don't know. I can't really pin it on any one this time around. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Well, that's how I see it. Check back on March 7th and I'll sum up who actually wins. In the meantime, let the speculation begin....
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