And The Oscar Might Go To...?

Now the big race is on. The Oscar nominees have been announced and the big day is approaching. Now the only question besides who will win is: "Will the ceremony actually take place?" With the Writers strike still going strong, who knows if anyone will walk the red carpet on February 24? Assuming that they do, who might take home the golden boy? That's a good question, but if I had to hazard a few guesses, I think it might go like this:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen Why? The Coen Brothers are a standard in the movie industry, known for delivering incredibly memorable and visceral cinema. No Country for Old Men is no exception. Keep an eye on the brothers tonight. This could be the first of several wins for them on the big night.

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody for Juno. Why? I just have a feeling about this one. Juno has become this year's little movie that could and its best shot for an Oscar is with the writer. Besides, she's become quite the media darling for her smarts and savvy. Not to mention for being the former exotic dancer/stripper turned screenwriter who could. Ms. Cody's one to watch because she's got an interesting career ahead of her. You heard it here first.

Best Cinematography: This is a hard one. All of these are incredibly well-shot movies with first rate directors of photography lensing them. But if I had to choose one, I'd go with Atonement. Why? Because war-torn love stories told against exotic backgrounds are usually a sure bet. Besides, everyone keeps talking about that tracking shot following James McAvoy during an epic battle.

Best Original Score: I love movie scores and am a big fan of three of the nominees: Dario Marianelli (Atonement), James Newton Howard (Michael Clayton), and Marco Beltrami (3:10 to Yuma). All of these guys are good, having composed some incredible music for numerous movies. If you don't believe me, just listen to the scores for V for Vendetta (Marianelli), Unbreakable(Howard), or Terminator 3 (Beltrami). My guess is that Howard will win for Michael Clayton. We'll see.

Best Animated Feature: I'm excited about the prospect of Persepolis winning this. Such an interesting way to tell the story of a young woman's coming of age during turbulent times in Iran. As much as I want this to happen, this film is up against the latest Pixar offering, Ratatouille. A well done and entertaining film that I enjoyed, but to be honest, it wasn't really the movie I wanted to see when I went to the movies with friends that weekend. That's not a slam against Pixar; I love their films (The Incredibles is still my favorite). But, while I think Marjane Satrapi's Persepolis should win, it won't. It's going to be Ratatouille.

Best Supporting Actress: Oh, boy. This is an interesting race, and I admit that I'm very biased in this category. These are incredible actresses in some fine performances. I have to admit, I'd love to see Cate Blanchett, perhaps this generation's most gifted actress (and my personal fav - like I said, I'm biased), take home the golden dude for her interpretation of Bob Dylan, I don't think it's going to happen. She's just won a Best Supporting Oscar a few years ago for playing Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator, and I think it very unlikely that she's going to get another one so soon. I'd also love to Ruby Dee win Oscar gold for her small, but memorable role in American Gangster (if she won, it'd be her first). This would be a wonderful cap to an incredibly illustrious career on stage and screen for Ms. Dee, an actress I was once privileged to meet, along with her late husband, the great Ossie Davis, back in college. However, while I want her to win, I think the Oscar will go to Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton.

Best Supporting Actor: Some seriously seasoned actors here, even if you don't count the great character actor Hal Holbrook. While I think there's a precedent for honoring veteran actors like Mr. Holbrook, I think it will go to Javier Bardem. Yet another indication that this could be No Country for Old Men's big night.

Best Actress: If you thought I was biased in the Supporting Actress category, you'll really get an earful with this race. All of these actresses gave incredible performances this past year, and choosing from this group won't be easy. I've admired Laura Linney in just about everything I've seen her in (with the exception of Congo - but I don't fault her for that one). She deserves her nomination for The Savages, turning in a very quirky and nuanced performance as a neurotic sibling caring for her dying father. That being said, I don't think she'll win. Ellen Page impressed many with her turn in the darling movie of the year, Juno, but she's the new kid on the block, and the Academy doesn't usually hand the statuette over to newbies. The fact that Cate Blanchett was nominated for her role as Elizabeth I in Elizabeth: The Golden Age speaks to the fact that not only did she deliver a strong performance, but that she might FINALLY get justice for being robbed 10 years ago when she didn't win the first time she was nominated for playing The Virgin Queen in Elizabeth. Gwyneth Paltrow won for Shakespeare in Love, a wonderful performance, but one not nearly as powerful as Ms. Blanchett's that year. It would be poetic justice if Cate did win this year. However, she won't, because as wonderful as she is in the movie, it's her performance that is the best thing about the film. This sequel just wasn't as strong as the original, and I fear that that will nix any chance of winning the Oscar (the thought of which really bums me out, as I think the twice-nominated Cate Blanchett will go home empty-handed this year). That brings us down to two: Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard. While Ms. Cotillard's performance in La Vie en Rose showcases a lot of range, I think it will come down to the Academy honoring veteran actress Julie Christie. And like I said, they like to honor those actors who deliver memorable performances in their golden years.

Best Actor: It'd be cool to see Viggo Mortensen win for his turn as a Russian killer in Eastern Promises, but I have a sneaking feeling that it will come down to the odds on favorite in this race: Daniel Day-Lewis for his role in There Will Be Blood. His is one of the most remarkable performances of the last year, and I think this will be a case of the buzz getting it right. Unless, of course, they give it to Tommy Lee Jones. But I think it will be Day-Lewis.

Best Director: While it could go to Paul Thomas Anderson, I really think that this is the Coen brothers year. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Best Picture: While conventional wisdom tells me to go with Atonement (the whole war torn love story thing), I'm betting on No Country for Old Men. The night belongs to Ethan & Joel Coen. Unless I'm wrong.

Well, that's how I see it. Check back on February 24th and I'll sum up who actually wins. In the meantime, let the speculation continue....